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Taiwan is awaiting a second Trump term with trepidation

MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST:

The Island of Taiwan awaits Donald Trump's second term with some trepidation. It looks to the U.S. as its most important security guarantor against neighboring China, though President-elect Trump has signaled he will be tough on China and on Taiwan. NPR's Emily Feng reports from Taipei.

EMILY FENG, BYLINE: Taiwan was ecstatic at the start of President-elect Trump's first term back in 2016. He'd just accepted a phone call with Taiwan's then-President Tsai Ing-wen, a huge break in U.S. precedent because the U.S. does not formally recognize Taiwan as a country. And so enthusiasm for Trump in Taiwan soared. This time around, Taiwan's reaction has been more tempered.

MICHAEL SHAO: I'm not sure whether it will happen again.

FENG: This is Michael Shao (ph).

SHAO: I'm the senior adviser to the President Lai.

FENG: Lai Ching-te, whose office has already said it has no plans to call Trump. And the sheen of a second Trump presidency has worn off. A November survey sponsored by the National Taiwan University in Taipei found 56% of adults surveyed in Taiwan said they would have preferred Kamala Harris. Only 16% said they supported Donald Trump. Shao says that's due to Trump's all-over-the-place stances on Taiwan.

SHAO: One thing is predictable - is that President Trump is unpredictable. He's a businessman turned politician, and therefore, his style is negotiation. Make a deal.

FENG: In particular, Taiwan has been roiling over Trump's comment earlier this year that Taiwan should pay the U.S. more for its defense - even though it already spends millions, if not billions, a year on U.S.-made weapons - and falsely accusing Taiwan of stealing the U.S. semiconductor industry.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

DONALD TRUMP: Taiwan did take all of our chip business. You know, we used to make our own chips. Now they're made in Taiwan, 90% of the chips.

FENG: And so distrust, even resentment, of the U.S. is mounting in Taiwan, according to surveys.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

CHIN JIN: (Non-English language spoken).

FENG: "Shouldn't it be the U.S. who pays Taiwan for protection money, since Taiwanese troops are the first line of defense against China, " asks Chin Jin (ph), a legislator from Taiwan's Kinmen County, which is just miles from China's East Coast. Hsu Chiao-Hsin, an outspoken Taipei City councilor, says she believes Trump is looking for ways to get out of any responsibility to defend Taiwan.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

HSU CHIAO-HSIN: (Speaking non-English language).

FENG: She notes Trump has proposed Taiwan spend up to 10% of its GDP on its military, knowing that is an impossible figure because that's more than three times the proportion the U.S. spends. Then there is the open question of tariffs. On the campaign trail, Trump has said he wants to put blanket tariffs on all goods coming into the U.S. That could include semiconductor chips made in Taiwan, which is a global chip leader. Jeremy Chih-Cheng Chang, CEO of DSET, a state-run think tank, says Taiwan chip giants like TSMC might have some leveraging power.

JEREMY CHIH-CHENG CHANG: The TSMC supply chain is going to be affected because they are relying on materials to equipments from the suppliers outside the U.S.

FENG: Anxious about defense and about the semiconductor trade, Taiwan's major political parties have preemptively built relationships with Republican members of Trump's next administration, like Marco Rubio, who is nominated to be the next secretary of state and who speaks often in support of Taiwan, though less popular in Taiwan is Elon Musk, another Trump appointee, and whose Tesla factory in Shanghai makes Taiwan wary. Shao, the presidential adviser, says if Trump is the businessman Taiwan believes him to be, then Taipei is signaling as hard as it can right now that they are ready to play ball.

SHAO: Taiwan is not an exception. It's trying to make a deal with Trump.

FENG: Taiwan is just figuring out what to offer Trump right now in order to get the security commitments it craves. Emily Feng, NPR News, Taipei, Taiwan. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.

NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.

Emily Feng is NPR's Beijing correspondent.