LEILA FADEL, HOST:
OK, so what do the primary results in Ohio and Indiana say about President Trump's control over the Republican Party and his base? To talk about that, I'm joined by Kyle Kondik in the studio here. He's managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, a newsletter from the University of Virginia's Center for Politics focusing on American campaigns and elections. Good morning, and welcome back to the program.
KYLE KONDIK: Good morning.
FADEL: OK, so we heard from Stephen there. Trump targeted seven Republican state senators in Indiana who opposed his effort to redraw the state's congressional map to try to get more Republican seats. Five of those seven are out. Was Trump's involvement what sealed the deal in these races?
KONDIK: Oh, absolutely. I mean, I think if the president doesn't get involved here, we're not really talking about this. I mean, the redistricting fight was a huge, high-profile thing late last year. Of course, it continues into this year. We've got more states thinking about redistricting. And I think the president wanted to lay down a marker saying, hey, what I say goes in the Republican Party. And I think a lot of Republicans generally believe that and feel that Trump's support is needed, and also, if he comes in against you, you're in trouble. And certainly, if you look at the results last night, you would also come to that conclusion - or at least I would.
FADEL: Now, do you have a sense of what motivated voters? Is it - was it redistricting? Was it allegiance to Trump? Was it cost of living?
KONDIK: So the reporting kind of suggested that voters may not have been particularly keyed in on redistricting all that much. But I think that the - just the fact that there were these active campaigns against these incumbents, and also the president's endorsement against those incumbents probably was - I mean, again, I would think would be the big factors that actually moved voters against the incumbents.
FADEL: Now, what's your main takeaway about Trump's continued influence in the party, especially given these low approval ratings we're seeing in polling?
KONDIK: Yeah, it is kind of striking because typically in a midterm kind of environment and with a president whose approval rating is now - generally it's below 40%, you think, oh, this is a time maybe for Republicans to maybe move away from Trump a little bit or distance themself, but that's really not happening and the president's not going to allow that to happen. And in the context of a Republican primary, you know, the president's support's really important and supporting him is really important. But in a general election, if you're just yelling, Trump, Trump, Trump and you're trying to win over the middle of the electorate, that's maybe not the best message, particularly in - not in Republican primaries, but in swing districts and key races across the country.
FADEL: Do these results change your expectations for the other redistricting efforts we're seeing after the Supreme Court's decision effectively gutted part of the Voting Rights Act?
KONDIK: I think it's quite possible that we'll see, you know, more action than maybe we would have if - you know, if this wasn't going on. Now, there are big questions about what - you know, how much time is left for certain states to act and what they're actually going to do. You know, in a state like Louisiana, are they going to try to draw out just one Democratic seat? Are they going to try to draw out just two? Reporting suggested that it's really just going to be one, but maybe that changes. And, again, the White House has a strong hand to play when they go ask states to draw these new lines. And, you know, the White House is desperate to try to find a way to save the House. I think Democrats are still pretty clearly favored to win the house, but this redistricting stuff does have an effect.
FADEL: What do you think the Republican takeaway will be as a result of these Indiana results?
KONDIK: Again, just that Trump remains really strong within the party. You know, the lame-duck status comes for everyone. And, you know, the president, you know, can't run again in 2028. His approval ratings are not very good. But, you know, you think about, you know, we're going to have a presidential primary starting on both sides in, you know, starting really after the midterms.
FADEL: Yeah.
KONDIK: I mean, some would argue it's already started. And, you know, the - I think the thought was, oh, well, you know, Trump is going to be the kingmaker, and I think certainly he continues to seem like a kingmaker as of May 2026.
FADEL: What about for the Democrats? What do you think the Democrats will take away from yesterday's results?
KONDIK: So they will understand the same thing. And I also kind of wonder if - you know, I think this redistricting fight's going to continue into 2028. And, for instance, like, Maryland was a state where Democrats decided - particularly the state Senate leader decided, hey, we're not going to try to draw, you know, draw an additional Democratic seat in Maryland. I kind of wonder if the anti-gerrymandering forces are basically just going to look like suckers in that, like, hey, if the other side is going for this, we're going to go for it too, and that standing on principle against it, which is what the Indiana - these Indiana Republicans did, ultimately just is not worth doing.
FADEL: And really quickly, do you have a clear prediction this morning about the midterm results in the fall?
KONDIK: I don't think we could look at last night and say that it was necessarily predictive. You know, one result I found kind of interesting and was in keeping with other results is that there was a pretty important state Senate race in Michigan in a pretty competitive area that would determine whether Democrats would hold control of the state Senate or not. The Democrats won that by 20 points. Again, that's been very similar to other special elections where Democrats have been punching above their weight.
FADEL: That's Kyle Kondik of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. Thank you.
KONDIK: Thank you. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
NPR transcripts are created on a rush deadline by an NPR contractor. This text may not be in its final form and may be updated or revised in the future. Accuracy and availability may vary. The authoritative record of NPR’s programming is the audio record.
