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El Niño looking less likely to bring wet rainy season for California


A report released today by the National Climate Prediction Center shows the likelihood of an El Niño developing this fall or winter is dropping.

The most recent data also show diminishing odds of any potential El Niño being strong, which is often associated with extremely wet winters in California.

Thursday's report shows the probability of an El Niño developing at 65 percent, a drop of 15 points from a couple of months ago.

Drought weary residents shouldn't lose all hope however. Logan Johnson is with the National Weather Service in Monterey and says El Niño is not necessarily a good predictor for local rainfall expectations.

"What we need to do at this point is just kinda keep an eye on things, and as we get closer we may start to get a better sense of some of these other factors that might influence our winter rainfall patterns," said Johnson."Don't look for El Niño to the driver in our winter rainfall this year."

Johnson says a strong El Niño is the best predictor, but the weak versions don't have a good track record.

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